Predicted 2026 Medal Tally
Who will top the 2026 Winter Olympic Games medal tally? In the lead up to the Games in Milano Cortina there will be a lot of conjecture about how many medals each country will win, but here we show a few examples of little more scientific and methodical predictions.
There are two main categories of prediction methods: one is predictions based on competition results leading up to the Olympics,the other is from scholars using economics and a range of factors to base their predictions (or a mixture of both of these). Only time will tell how correct they are and which method may be better.
We are usually only able to find a few predictions for Winter Olympic medal tallys (compared to the Summer Olympic predictions).
Prediction of TOTAL GOLD MEDALS to be won in 2026
Norway may be predicted to win the most medals, as they have finished on top of the medal tally for the last three Winter Olympics.
| rank | Gracenote (?) | Totallympics (10 Feb 2025) | Betting Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Norway (22) | ||
| 2 | Germany (22) | ||
| 3 | Netherlands (20) | ||
| 4 | USA (19) | ||
| 5 | Canada (15) | ||
| 6 | Sweden (12) | ||
| 7 | France (12) | ||
| 8 | Japan (10) | ||
| 9 | Italy (8) | ||
| 10 | Republic of Korea (8) |
Prediction of TOTAL MEDALS to be won in 2026
Norway won the most medals in Beijing 2022, as predicted they would.
| rank | Gracenote (?) | Totallympics (10 Feb 2025) | Betting Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Norway (69) | ||
| 2 | Germany (60) | ||
| 3 | Canada (57) | ||
| 4 | USA (50) | ||
| 5 | Netherlands (45) | ||
| 6 | Sweden (34) | ||
| 7 | Italy (34) | ||
| 8 | France (31) | ||
| 9 | Austria (29) | ||
| 10 | Japan (26) |
About The Predictors
- Totallympics — a simple ranking based on the current world champions for each event/sport. There will be changes as time progresses and more world championships are undertaken. See website.
Previous Predictors
- Gracenote Sports' Virtual Medal Table (VMT) — This medal table prediction was created by Gracenote Sports. This predictor uses an algorithm to rank athletes and teams in each Olympic event based on recent competition results, and is updated regularly leading up to the Games. The last prediction prior to the games starting is listed.
- Tumblr Guy - there are predictions listed on Tumblr but no indication who created them. The method used is by selecting a winner of each event, based on recent results. Their final prediction from 4 days to go were listed on https://beijing2026predictions.tumblr.com/ (link no longer working).
- Betting Odds — found online a list of Olympic Games Odds provided by Bovada. As only the betting odds were provided, we just have a predicted finishing order, not actual medal counts.
- Bleacher Report - from (3 Feb '22) - A page on the Bleacher Report website lists the top 5 predictions. No method or other source is listed, so we are not sure how they came about their list. Source here.
Related Pages
- 2026 Winter Olympics Medal Tally
- More Winter Olympics predictions
- Medal Tally from every Winter Olympics.
Any comments, suggestions, or corrections? Please let us know.
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