2016 Predicted Medal Tally
There are quite a few analysis models that provide a prediction of the final medal tally for the 2016 Olympic Games. Here are the top 10 positions from each prediction model that we have found. The method used to predict the winners varies, some are from scholars using economics and a range of factors to base their prediction, while others use recent competition results and possibly a bit of gut feeling. You can see below how close the predictions were. Now that the actual results are known, the accuracy of the prediction equations can be assessed. See our analysis of these predictions.
There are two sets of tables, one for predictions of the total gold medals won, the other for predicted total medals won. With the banning of many Russian athletes in the lead up to the Olympics, the timing of when the prediction is made can influence its accuracy. See more details about each of these prediction models here.
Predicted Gold Medal Tally
These predictions generally have the USA leading the final gold medal tally as they did in 2012, followed by China. The expected medal haul of Russia dropped dramatically in the lead up to the Games due to many of their athletes being banned. Any predictions done before that time will probably have overestimated their expected result. The timeline of Gracenote predictions clearly show this.
Table of predicted top 10 countries with TOTAL GOLD medals won (predictions based on only results)
| rank | Actual Results | Gracenote (3 Aug 2016) |
Cazeneuve-SI (29 July 2016) |
Barra (Dec 2015) |
ATASS Sports (5 Aug 2016) |
Nielsen (1 Aug 2016) |
Olympic medals predictions (4 Aug 2016) |
AOC Benchmark (Dec 2014) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | USA (46) | USA (38) | USA (45) | USA (35) | USA (42) | USA (36) | USA (50) | China (39) |
| 2 | UK (27) | China (29) | China (45) | China (32) | China (32) | China (31) | China (30) | USA (35) |
| 3 | China (26) | UK (18) | Australia (20) | Russia (23) | UK (18) | Russia (19) | Russia (19) | Russia (25) |
| 4 | Russia (19) | Germany (16) | UK (16) | Japan (18) | Australia (17) | UK (19) | UK (18) | Japan (18) |
| 5 | Germany (17) | Australia (16) | France (15) | UK (16) | France (14) | Japan (19) | Germany (17) | UK (15) |
| 6 | Japan (12) | Russia (15) | Russia (14) | Germany (16) | Germany (13) | France (16) | France (17) | France (15) |
| 7 | France (10) | Japan (14) | Germany (14) | Australia (14) | Russia (13) | Australia (14) | Japan (14) | Australia (13) |
| 8 | South Korea (19) | France (13) | Japan (13) | France (14) | Japan (12) | Germany (13) | Australia (11) | Germany (13) |
| 9 | Italy (8) | South Korea (10) | South Korea (10) | South Korea (12) | South Korea (9) | South Korea (11) | New Zealand (10) | - |
| 10 | Australia (8) | Brazil (8) | New Zealand (7) | New Zealand (10) | New Zealand (8) | New Zealand (9) | South Korea (7) | - |
Table of predicted top 10 countries with TOTAL GOLD medals won (predictions based on factors other than just results)
| rank | Actual Results | Goldman Sachs (July 2016) |
WSJ (28 July 2016) |
Gonzales (Tuck School) | Kuper et al. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | USA (46) | USA (45) | USA (42) | USA (48) | USA (35) |
| 2 | UK (27) | China (36) | China (35) | China (38) | China (35) |
| 3 | China (26) | UK (23) | Australia (17) | UK (30) | Russia (24) |
| 4 | Russia (19) | Russia (14) | UK (16) | Russia (18) | UK (17) |
| 5 | Germany (17) | South Korea (13) | Russia (16) | Germany (13) | Germany (12) |
| 6 | Japan (12) | Germany (12) | Germany (15) | South Korea (12) | Japan (12) |
| 7 | France (10) | France (11) | France (12) | France (11) | Australia (11) |
| 8 | South Korea (19) | Italy (8) | Japan (11) | Italy (8) | France (11) |
| 9 | Italy (8) | Hungary (8) | South Korea (10) | Japan (8) | South Korea (10) |
| 10 | Australia (8) | Japan (7) | Netherlands (9) | Australia (7) | Italy (9) |
Predicted Total Medal Tally
As per the total gold medal lists, the USA is mostly predicted to win the most medals overall.
Table of predicted top 10 countries with TOTAL MEDALS won (predictions based on only results)
| rank | Actual Results | Gracenote (3 Aug 2016) |
Cazeneuve-SI (29 July 2016) |
Olympic medals predictions (4 Aug 2016) |
Barra (Oct 2014) |
ATASS Sports (5 Aug 2016) |
Nielsen (1 Aug 2016) |
AOC Benchmark (Dec 2014) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | USA (121) | USA (88) | USA (118) | USA (104) | China (94) | USA (105) | USA (97) | China (79) |
| 2 | China (70) | China (71) | China (85) | China (66) | USA (82) | China (75) | China (83) | USA (66) |
| 3 | UK (67) | UK (56) | Russia (59) | Russia (55) | Russia (70) | UK (55) | Russia (53) | Russia (60) |
| 4 | Russia (56) | Germany (51) | UK (53) | UK (53) | UK (52) | Australia (48) | UK (51) | Germany (45) |
| 5 | Germany (42) | France (47) | Australia (50) | Germany (52) | Germany (48) | Germany (42) | Germany (49) | UK (45) |
| 6 | France (42) | Russia (42) | Germany (47) | Japan (43) | Japan (39) | France (41) | France (42) | Australia (42) |
| 7 | Japan (41) | Australia (41) | France (39) | France (41) | Australia (39) | Russia (38) | Japan (39) | Japan (41) |
| 8 | Australia (29) | Japan (36) | Japan (34) | Australia (39) | France (39) | Japan (33) | Australia (39) | France (40) |
| 9 | Italy (28) | Netherlands (28) | South Korea (31) | Netherlands (30) | South Korea (23) | Netherlands (26) | Netherlands (31) | - |
| 10 | Canada (22) | South Korea (25) | Netherlands (22) | New Zealand (24) | New Zealand (18) | South Korea (25) | South Korea (26) | - |
Table of predicted top 10 countries with TOTAL MEDALS won (predictions based on factors other than just results)
| rank | Actual Results | WSJ (28 July 2016) |
Goldman Sachs (July 2016) |
PwC (June 2016) |
Gonzales (Tuck School) | Noland & Stahler | Forrest et al. | Bredtmann et al. (Aug 2016) |
Kuper et al. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | USA (121) | USA (101) | USA (106) | USA (108) | USA (105) | USA | USA (99) | USA (100) | USA (102) |
| 2 | China (70) | China (82) | China (89) | China (98) | China (89) | China | China (90) | China (86) | Russia (83) |
| 3 | UK (67) | UK (52) | UK (59) | Russia (70) | UK (67) | Russia | UK (51) | UK (64) | China (74) |
| 4 | Russia (56) | Russia (51) | Russia (58) | UK (52) | Russia (62) | UK | Russia (42) | Russia (53) | UK (43) |
| 5 | Germany (42) | Germany (51) | Germany (46) | Germany (40) | Germany (48) | Germany | Australia (37) | Japan (47) | Germany (41) |
| 6 | France (42) | Australia (48) | Japan (39) | Australia (35) | Japan (43) | Japan | Germany (36) | Germany (43) | Australia (41) |
| 7 | Japan (41) | France (43) | France (36) | France (34) | Australia (35) | France | Japan (31) | Australia (34) | France (37) |
| 8 | Australia (29) | Japan (35) | Australia (35) | Japan (33) | France (35) | Australia | France (30) | Brazil (34) | Japan (34) |
| 9 | Italy (28) | Netherlands (29) | South Korea (28) | South Korea (27) | Italy (29) | Brazil | Italy (26) | France (34) | South Korea (31) |
| 10 | Canada (22) | South Korea (24) | Italy (28) | Italy (26) | South Korea (28) | South Korea | Netherlands & Spain (20) | Italy & South Korea (28) | Italy (28) |
References
- Gracenote medal tally prediction as published by gracenote.com
- Brian Cazeneuve - published in SI.com, July 29, 2016.
- Luciano Barra - as published on NBCSports Dec 7, 2015
- Benchmark Analysis: Swimmers will propel Australia up the medal table at Rio Olympics, says study. The AOC Benchmark analysis only listed the top 8
- Olympicmedalspredictions - www.olympicmedalspredictions.com (author unknown, data now removed), made predictions based on results from major sporting events leading up to the Games.
- Marcus Noland and Kevin Stahler, Asian Participation and Performance at the Olympic Games, Innovation and Economic Growth Series, No. 4, May 2015. There is no medal data, just rank order.
- Goldman Sachs 'The Olympics and Economics 2016: Modelling Medal Success in Rio'. The analysts made a special adjustments for Russia since it is unclear to what degree the country will participate.
- Kate, F. ten, G.H. Kuper and E. Sterken (2016), "Wie zijn de winnaars in Rio de Janeiro?," Economisch Statistische Berichten, Vol. 101, No. 4739, 14 juli 2016, pp. 526-527.
- Bredtmann et al. - predictions adjusted with 24 Russian medals reallocated. See BBC News article.
- Camila Gonzales from Tuck School of Business,Going for the Gold in the Cidade Maravilhosa: Who Will Win the 2016 Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro? Data adjusted for the banning of the Russian T&F team.
- PwC: Economic Briefing Paper: Modelling Olympic Games performance — this prediction from June 2016 assumed (incorrectly) that the track and field team was allowed to compete after a doping scandal.
- Nielsen: Medal predictions for the Rio Games - the competition between national elite sport systems
- Wall Street Journal - prediction published in the Wall Street Journal online on 28 July 2016
- ATASS Sports - Their predictions have been rounded to the nearest whole number (from http://www.atass-sports.co.uk/ files/atasssports/Rio2016_1.pdf, no longer available).
- Forrest et al. - David Forrest and Juan De Dios Tena (University of Liverpool) and Ian McHale (University of Salford) - predictions based on statistical modelling. Experts predict Rio 2016 medals, and how doping altered the 2012 forecast.
Related Pages
- About Predicted Medal Tables
- Changes over time of the 2016 Gracenote medal predictions
- My 2012 Gold Medal Table Prediction
- More Medal Tallies from each Olympic year
- See more about the Olympics Games in 2016
Any comments, suggestions, or corrections? Please let us know.
Upcoming Events